Systematic Value Errors for all Grades below NM Messages in this topic - RSS

stephanm
stephanm
Posts: 35

6/3/2016

stephanm
stephanm
Posts: 35
Hi,
I had written about this issue previously, regarding Flash 129, and in the subsequent brief discussion it became clear that it related to many more comics.
CapnDoug confirmed on April 19 that CPG staff was aware, and that the issues would be fixed.

In the meantime it wasn't fixed, and in fact, there seems to be an ongoing and systematic error applying to many (or all?) older comics, where prices were recently amended. (I think it applies to SA and the more valuable BA books. I didn't notice it on lesser value books, but that might just be because the amounts in question were too small to notice)

The problem is always like this:
The NM value for a certain comic is increased, in line with market movements.
I assume correctly.
As far as my comics were concerned, that part seemed perfectly realistic.

(with one exception -- sorry about the quick excursion, but are you sure about Moon Knight (1980) # 23 being worth $20 in NM, when all the surrounding issues remain at $3?
I do think the Moon Knight (1980) series is due an overall increase, but $20 feels like a typo. And, incidentally, looking at Moon Knight 23, the lower grades look even further inflated. Even if one were to assume that the $20 is correct, $10 for FN+ or $4 for GD/VG is definitely off).

Anyway, what happens is that all grades below NM are (often dramatically, and systematically) overvalued.
The way I understand you tend to handle values for all grades, is that you apply a fixed grid of percentages of the NM value. These grids may differ for varying periods, as the relative values between a NM and, say, a VF will be different for a Silver Age book than for a Modern Age book etc. (as far I can tell, for SA you apply 42%, for BA 50%, in that example?) But the principle remains the same.

While this of course always had to be a little imprecise due to the generalization involved, it used to be consistent and broadly in line with how the market valued lower grade books.

For example, very common percentages were VF at 42% of NM for SA books, FN/VF at 24%, FN+ at 18%, VG at 9% etc.

However, on many books, where prices were recently amended, the percentages applied to anything below NM now seem wildly too high.

So my aforementioned Flash 129 states that FN+ is $400 (50% of NM, instead of 18% as before, or for surrounding issues)

Tales to Astonish 49 values my GD+ book at $171.45, i.e. 17.1% of NM, instead of 6% as previously and for surrounding issues

My Marvel Premiere 15 (amended yesterday) in VF suddenly jumped from $200 to $304 (when NM only had a moderate and realistic rise from $400 to $425). VF is now 71% of NM, when before it was 50%.

These are just random example -- I think it applies to hundreds of comics with recent value changes.

The problem is that because only a very small proportion of books in existence are NM, this totally distorts the value given for a collection.
The key advantages that CPG has over a print publication like Overstreet, apart from the obvious fact that you are more nimble in amending values, is that
(1) you can given a much more precise differentiation of grades, down to the last plus or minus; and
(2) that any value changes are immediately reflected in the value of the Comic Collection on your website

Unfortunately, these recent systematic errors totally negate these advantages, as the values are no longer trustworthy -- especially for books with recent changes (which are the most interesting)

I have 50 books in my collection with you, of which I know that at least 3 are very wrong. I have done a quick calculation, and my my collection is overvalued by $460, which is almost 10% of the total value of the 50 books.

And I would have thought that the IT issues surrounding this are manageable.
Applying a fixed grid of percentages to comics from a certain pedigree
should be relatively easy to apply.

Now, fair enough, I am a Bronze member, and you might say, don't look a gift horse in the mouth and all that, and I should be glad for the service.
Which I REALLY am, by the way -- this is a brilliant service.
But as this error also applies to your Silver and Gold members, I really think it is worth fixing, to keep ahead of the Overstreets of the world.

Thanks !!!
0 link
stephanm
stephanm
Posts: 35

7/8/2016

stephanm
stephanm
Posts: 35
Sorry to harp on about this.
But, dear CPG, this error continuous unabated for any comics with recent price changes.
Yesterday the NM value for Fantastic Four 45 (1st Inhumans) went down from $2,000 to $1,600. No doubt correct, given the big question marks over the planned movie.
Yet the (perceived) value of my FN- copie shot up from $280 (14% of $2,000) to a whopping $594 (37% of $1,600).
Which of course is crazy. The real value is probably $224 (the original 14% ratio for FN- copies, applied to the new NM value of 1,600) and that's roughly what you will find on eBay.
That's nothing new, exactly the same error as described above, which applies to every single comic on CPG that had a value change within the last few months (I don't know when it started, but I think early this year).
And as I said before, I also understand that it is quite tricky to change on those books that already have the error (as CPG will need to identify them all, and issue a strong explanatory statement beforehand, because users will get shocked if their collections go down by a big chunk overnight. Mine, I know, will be affected to the tune of almost $1,000. But what's the point deluding oneself about the value. I want to know the actual value).
But, CPG administrators, what I would really urge you to do is to stop compounding the errors by using the wrong value grids on every new value change.
At least please stop it going forward. Thanks !!!
+1 link